District	Rating	Flip Status	Median Margin	Dem % chance of winning	GOP % chance of winning
0	AK-AL	Likely D	False	6.558945	82.79473	17.20527
1	AL-01	Safe R	False	-36.104779	0.00000	100.00000
2	AL-02	Safe R	False	-36.028527	0.00000	100.00000
3	AL-03	Safe R	False	-39.874782	0.00000	100.00000
4	AL-04	Safe R	False	-57.692029	0.00000	100.00000
5	AL-05	Safe R	False	-35.937301	0.00000	100.00000
6	AL-06	Safe R	False	-39.247401	0.00000	100.00000
7	AL-07	Safe D	False	30.264843	100.00000	0.00000
8	AR-01	Safe R	False	-41.843375	0.00000	100.00000
9	AR-02	Safe R	False	-26.114361	0.00000	100.00000
10	AR-03	Safe R	False	-34.201823	0.00000	100.00000
11	AR-04	Safe R	False	-40.568990	0.00000	100.00000
12	AZ-01	Lean R	False	-2.802855	35.98573	64.01427
13	AZ-02	Lean R	True	-2.877283	35.61358	64.38642
14	AZ-03	Safe D	False	51.384904	100.00000	0.00000
15	AZ-04	Likely D	False	8.800711	94.00355	5.99645
16	AZ-05	Safe R	False	-27.632345	0.00000	100.00000
17	AZ-06	Likely R	True	-5.746008	21.26996	78.73004
18	AZ-07	Safe D	False	32.571384	100.00000	0.00000
19	AZ-08	Safe R	False	-100.000000	0.00000	100.00000
20	AZ-09	Safe R	False	-100.000000	0.00000	100.00000
21	CA-01	Safe R	False	-25.381839	0.00000	100.00000
22	CA-02	Safe D	False	42.712040	100.00000	0.00000
23	CA-03	Likely R	False	-7.568655	12.15672	87.84328
24	CA-04	Safe D	False	35.334978	100.00000	0.00000
25	CA-05	Safe R	False	-24.045690	0.00000	100.00000
26	CA-06	Safe D	False	19.054821	100.00000	0.00000
27	CA-07	Safe D	False	35.165551	100.00000	0.00000
28	CA-08	Safe D	False	44.716866	100.00000	0.00000
29	CA-09	Likely D	False	6.842930	84.21465	15.78535
30	CA-10	Safe D	False	34.546009	100.00000	0.00000
31	CA-11	Safe D	False	58.680900	100.00000	0.00000
32	CA-12	Safe D	False	64.545806	100.00000	0.00000
33	CA-13	Lean D	False	1.863552	59.31776	40.68224
34	CA-14	Safe D	False	39.663163	100.00000	0.00000
35	CA-15	Safe D	False	100.000000	100.00000	0.00000
36	CA-16	Safe D	False	100.000000	100.00000	0.00000
37	CA-17	Safe D	False	40.611091	100.00000	0.00000
38	CA-18	Safe D	False	38.801559	100.00000	0.00000
39	CA-19	Safe D	False	37.229211	100.00000	0.00000
40	CA-20	Safe R	False	-34.549155	0.00000	100.00000
41	CA-21	Safe D	False	20.448242	100.00000	0.00000
42	CA-22	Lean D	True	1.831559	59.15780	40.84220
43	CA-23	Safe R	False	-19.835028	0.00000	100.00000
44	CA-24	Safe D	False	27.069561	100.00000	0.00000
45	CA-25	Safe D	False	18.752150	100.00000	0.00000
46	CA-26	Likely D	False	6.525706	82.62853	17.37147
47	CA-27	Tossup	True	0.403200	52.01600	47.98400
48	CA-28	Safe D	False	32.148295	100.00000	0.00000
49	CA-29	Safe D	False	100.000000	100.00000	0.00000
50	CA-30	Safe D	False	100.000000	100.00000	0.00000
51	CA-31	Safe D	False	30.718974	100.00000	0.00000
52	CA-32	Safe D	False	36.181713	100.00000	0.00000
53	CA-33	Safe D	False	27.865395	100.00000	0.00000
54	CA-34	Safe D	False	100.000000	100.00000	0.00000
55	CA-35	Safe D	False	29.472161	100.00000	0.00000
56	CA-36	Safe D	False	32.887891	100.00000	0.00000
57	CA-37	Safe D	False	100.000000	100.00000	0.00000
58	CA-38	Safe D	False	29.188533	100.00000	0.00000
59	CA-39	Safe D	False	27.058510	100.00000	0.00000
60	CA-40	Safe R	False	-10.828658	0.00000	100.00000
61	CA-41	Likely R	False	-7.184871	14.07564	85.92436
62	CA-42	Safe D	False	39.968320	100.00000	0.00000
63	CA-43	Safe D	False	51.006052	100.00000	0.00000
64	CA-44	Safe D	False	42.712560	100.00000	0.00000
65	CA-45	Lean R	False	-3.532765	32.33617	67.66383
66	CA-46	Safe D	False	30.830685	100.00000	0.00000
67	CA-47	Likely D	False	7.417616	87.08808	12.91192
68	CA-48	Safe R	False	-25.065551	0.00000	100.00000
69	CA-49	Lean D	False	3.404884	67.02442	32.97558
70	CA-50	Safe D	False	29.032907	100.00000	0.00000
71	CA-51	Safe D	False	26.544591	100.00000	0.00000
72	CA-52	Safe D	False	33.858472	100.00000	0.00000
73	CO-01	Safe D	False	50.244008	100.00000	0.00000
74	CO-02	Safe D	False	35.108808	100.00000	0.00000
75	CO-03	Safe R	False	-13.169955	0.00000	100.00000
76	CO-04	Safe R	False	-29.270276	0.00000	100.00000
77	CO-05	Safe R	False	-24.469805	0.00000	100.00000
78	CO-06	Safe D	False	24.721973	100.00000	0.00000
79	CO-07	Likely D	False	6.394174	81.97087	18.02913
80	CO-08	Lean R	True	-4.571481	27.14259	72.85741
81	CT-01	Safe D	False	29.107401	100.00000	0.00000
82	CT-02	Safe D	False	16.145567	100.00000	0.00000
83	CT-03	Safe D	False	24.187125	100.00000	0.00000
84	CT-04	Safe D	False	25.598183	100.00000	0.00000
85	CT-05	Lean D	False	2.898108	64.49054	35.50946
86	DE-AL	Safe D	False	22.743793	100.00000	0.00000
87	FL-01	Safe R	False	-25.015801	0.00000	100.00000
88	FL-02	Safe R	False	-18.494890	0.00000	100.00000
89	FL-03	Safe R	False	-27.030026	0.00000	100.00000
90	FL-04	Safe R	True	-21.532499	0.00000	100.00000
91	FL-05	Safe R	False	-100.000000	0.00000	100.00000
92	FL-06	Safe R	False	-33.090081	0.00000	100.00000
93	FL-07	Safe R	True	-17.818298	0.00000	100.00000
94	FL-08	Safe R	False	-29.212529	0.00000	100.00000
95	FL-09	Safe D	False	19.653285	100.00000	0.00000
96	FL-10	Safe D	False	28.646691	100.00000	0.00000
97	FL-11	Safe R	False	-26.009199	0.00000	100.00000
98	FL-12	Safe R	False	-36.432389	0.00000	100.00000
99	FL-13	Likely R	True	-7.424925	12.87538	87.12462
100	FL-14	Safe D	False	22.363154	100.00000	0.00000
101	FL-15	Safe R	True	-9.554617	2.22691	97.77309
102	FL-16	Safe R	False	-24.117453	0.00000	100.00000
103	FL-17	Safe R	False	-28.283639	0.00000	100.00000
104	FL-18	Safe R	False	-31.922566	0.00000	100.00000
105	FL-19	Safe R	False	-32.401403	0.00000	100.00000
106	FL-20	Safe D	False	45.555178	100.00000	0.00000
107	FL-21	Safe R	False	-24.564918	0.00000	100.00000
108	FL-22	Safe D	True	18.889605	100.00000	0.00000
109	FL-23	Safe D	False	13.298122	100.00000	0.00000
110	FL-24	Safe D	False	43.733550	100.00000	0.00000
111	FL-25	Safe D	False	18.779389	100.00000	0.00000
112	FL-26	Safe R	False	-27.236002	0.00000	100.00000
113	FL-27	Likely R	False	-7.812219	10.93890	89.06110
114	FL-28	Safe R	False	-21.362836	0.00000	100.00000
115	GA-01	Safe R	False	-23.073660	0.00000	100.00000
116	GA-02	Safe D	False	9.301971	96.50986	3.49014
117	GA-03	Safe R	False	-37.540331	0.00000	100.00000
118	GA-04	Safe D	False	48.313109	100.00000	0.00000
119	GA-05	Safe D	False	53.268134	100.00000	0.00000
120	GA-06	Safe R	True	-27.477808	0.00000	100.00000
121	GA-07	Safe D	False	24.304717	100.00000	0.00000
122	GA-08	Safe R	False	-35.023143	0.00000	100.00000
123	GA-09	Safe R	False	-44.191968	0.00000	100.00000
124	GA-10	Safe R	False	-33.033118	0.00000	100.00000
125	GA-11	Safe R	False	-28.252439	0.00000	100.00000
126	GA-12	Safe R	False	-22.183965	0.00000	100.00000
127	GA-13	Safe D	False	50.558434	100.00000	0.00000
128	GA-14	Safe R	False	-37.933081	0.00000	100.00000
129	HI-01	Safe D	False	33.948001	100.00000	0.00000
130	HI-02	Safe D	False	30.675291	100.00000	0.00000
131	IA-01	Likely R	False	-8.670295	6.64852	93.35148
132	IA-02	Lean R	False	-4.339766	28.30117	71.69883
133	IA-03	Tossup	True	-0.630706	46.84647	53.15353
134	IA-04	Safe R	False	-33.089735	0.00000	100.00000
135	ID-01	Safe R	False	-42.177802	0.00000	100.00000
136	ID-02	Safe R	False	-35.203448	0.00000	100.00000
137	IL-01	Safe D	False	41.201366	100.00000	0.00000
138	IL-02	Safe D	False	39.418034	100.00000	0.00000
139	IL-03	Safe D	False	37.627745	100.00000	0.00000
140	IL-04	Safe D	False	42.736587	100.00000	0.00000
141	IL-05	Safe D	False	35.404550	100.00000	0.00000
142	IL-06	Likely D	False	6.469114	82.34557	17.65443
143	IL-07	Safe D	False	100.000000	100.00000	0.00000
144	IL-08	Safe D	False	16.401996	100.00000	0.00000
145	IL-09	Safe D	False	37.592817	100.00000	0.00000
146	IL-10	Safe D	False	23.827400	100.00000	0.00000
147	IL-11	Safe D	False	12.201250	100.00000	0.00000
148	IL-12	Safe R	False	-43.185335	0.00000	100.00000
149	IL-13	Likely D	True	5.695743	78.47871	21.52129
150	IL-14	Safe D	False	9.605352	98.02676	1.97324
151	IL-15	Safe R	False	-40.645895	0.00000	100.00000
152	IL-16	Safe R	False	-32.621451	0.00000	100.00000
153	IL-17	Lean D	False	1.554036	57.77018	42.22982
154	IN-01	Lean D	False	4.743939	73.71970	26.28030
155	IN-02	Safe R	True	-30.908874	0.00000	100.00000
156	IN-03	Safe R	False	-37.165616	0.00000	100.00000
157	IN-04	Safe R	False	-36.814286	0.00000	100.00000
158	IN-05	Safe R	False	-27.535955	0.00000	100.00000
159	IN-06	Safe R	False	-38.355826	0.00000	100.00000
160	IN-07	Safe D	False	33.994166	100.00000	0.00000
161	IN-08	Safe R	False	-38.126780	0.00000	100.00000
162	IN-09	Safe R	False	-33.745467	0.00000	100.00000
163	KS-01	Safe R	False	-36.151363	0.00000	100.00000
164	KS-02	Safe R	False	-20.492944	0.00000	100.00000
165	KS-03	Lean D	False	3.079443	65.39721	34.60279
166	KS-04	Safe R	False	-31.278711	0.00000	100.00000
167	KY-01	Safe R	False	-44.945772	0.00000	100.00000
168	KY-02	Safe R	False	-41.600650	0.00000	100.00000
169	KY-03	Safe D	False	22.664810	100.00000	0.00000
170	KY-04	Safe R	False	-36.733663	0.00000	100.00000
171	KY-05	Safe R	False	-57.101111	0.00000	100.00000
172	KY-06	Safe R	False	-25.047727	0.00000	100.00000
173	LA-01	Safe R	False	-44.409295	0.00000	100.00000
174	LA-02	Safe D	False	45.832812	100.00000	0.00000
175	LA-03	Safe R	False	-40.095133	0.00000	100.00000
176	LA-04	Safe R	False	-100.000000	0.00000	100.00000
177	LA-05	Safe R	False	-35.827330	0.00000	100.00000
178	LA-06	Safe R	False	-41.974643	0.00000	100.00000
179	MA-01	Safe D	False	25.188583	100.00000	0.00000
180	MA-02	Safe D	False	29.921094	100.00000	0.00000
181	MA-03	Safe D	False	26.231835	100.00000	0.00000
182	MA-04	Safe D	False	100.000000	100.00000	0.00000
183	MA-05	Safe D	False	42.256041	100.00000	0.00000
184	MA-06	Safe D	False	28.267093	100.00000	0.00000
185	MA-07	Safe D	False	57.513793	100.00000	0.00000
186	MA-08	Safe D	False	32.031594	100.00000	0.00000
187	MA-09	Safe D	False	21.303622	100.00000	0.00000
188	MD-01	Safe R	False	-19.486221	0.00000	100.00000
189	MD-02	Safe D	False	21.307777	100.00000	0.00000
190	MD-03	Safe D	False	23.519674	100.00000	0.00000
191	MD-04	Safe D	False	63.594637	100.00000	0.00000
192	MD-05	Safe D	False	34.000629	100.00000	0.00000
193	MD-06	Likely D	False	5.817768	79.08884	20.91116
194	MD-07	Safe D	False	51.305650	100.00000	0.00000
195	MD-08	Safe D	False	49.240320	100.00000	0.00000
196	ME-01	Safe D	False	26.257004	100.00000	0.00000
197	ME-02	Lean D	False	3.741391	68.70696	31.29304
198	MI-01	Safe R	False	-28.378918	0.00000	100.00000
199	MI-02	Safe R	False	-35.143480	0.00000	100.00000
200	MI-03	Lean D	True	3.076810	65.38405	34.61595
201	MI-04	Safe R	False	-20.823671	0.00000	100.00000
202	MI-05	Safe R	False	-30.537951	0.00000	100.00000
203	MI-06	Safe D	False	28.994836	100.00000	0.00000
204	MI-07	Lean D	False	3.600760	68.00380	31.99620
205	MI-08	Lean D	False	3.013410	65.06705	34.93295
206	MI-09	Safe R	False	-34.537427	0.00000	100.00000
207	MI-10	Likely R	True	-5.475533	22.62234	77.37766
208	MI-11	Safe D	False	22.492098	100.00000	0.00000
209	MI-12	Safe D	False	43.548454	100.00000	0.00000
210	MI-13	Safe D	False	45.182397	100.00000	0.00000
211	MN-01	Safe R	False	-10.358675	0.00000	100.00000
212	MN-02	Lean D	False	2.265741	61.32871	38.67129
213	MN-03	Safe D	False	20.860144	100.00000	0.00000
214	MN-04	Safe D	False	34.010714	100.00000	0.00000
215	MN-05	Safe D	False	43.830584	100.00000	0.00000
216	MN-06	Safe R	False	-29.418603	0.00000	100.00000
217	MN-07	Safe R	False	-33.925328	0.00000	100.00000
218	MN-08	Safe R	False	-21.577192	0.00000	100.00000
219	MO-01	Safe D	False	48.922952	100.00000	0.00000
220	MO-02	Safe R	False	-21.892798	0.00000	100.00000
221	MO-03	Safe R	False	-35.076137	0.00000	100.00000
222	MO-04	Safe R	False	-41.981761	0.00000	100.00000
223	MO-05	Safe D	False	27.259542	100.00000	0.00000
224	MO-06	Safe R	False	-41.079414	0.00000	100.00000
225	MO-07	Safe R	False	-43.988387	0.00000	100.00000
226	MO-08	Safe R	False	-49.597146	0.00000	100.00000
227	MS-01	Safe R	False	-38.003449	0.00000	100.00000
228	MS-02	Safe D	False	29.035631	100.00000	0.00000
229	MS-03	Safe R	False	-33.601254	0.00000	100.00000
230	MS-04	Safe R	False	-40.497734	0.00000	100.00000
231	MT-01	Likely R	True	-7.370512	13.14744	86.85256
232	MT-02	Safe R	False	-31.599632	0.00000	100.00000
233	NC-01	Likely D	False	6.394580	81.97290	18.02710
234	NC-02	Safe D	False	27.860749	100.00000	0.00000
235	NC-03	Safe R	False	-32.709767	0.00000	100.00000
236	NC-04	Safe D	False	31.109534	100.00000	0.00000
237	NC-05	Safe R	False	-30.511755	0.00000	100.00000
238	NC-06	Safe D	False	11.760999	100.00000	0.00000
239	NC-07	Safe R	False	-22.982783	0.00000	100.00000
240	NC-08	Safe R	False	-37.535274	0.00000	100.00000
241	NC-09	Safe R	False	-20.752357	0.00000	100.00000
242	NC-10	Safe R	False	-41.455149	0.00000	100.00000
243	NC-11	Safe R	False	-19.414670	0.00000	100.00000
244	NC-12	Safe D	False	28.303893	100.00000	0.00000
245	NC-13	Lean R	True	-2.659843	36.70079	63.29921
246	NC-14	Safe D	True	17.079719	100.00000	0.00000
247	ND-AL	Safe R	False	-28.022145	0.00000	100.00000
248	NE-01	Safe R	False	-19.569787	0.00000	100.00000
249	NE-02	Lean R	False	-4.591282	27.04359	72.95641
250	NE-03	Safe R	False	-52.021099	0.00000	100.00000
251	NH-01	Lean D	False	1.966695	59.83348	40.16652
252	NH-02	Likely D	False	6.845474	84.22737	15.77263
253	NJ-01	Safe D	False	23.463775	100.00000	0.00000
254	NJ-02	Safe R	False	-18.114995	0.00000	100.00000
255	NJ-03	Likely D	False	8.783323	93.91661	6.08339
256	NJ-04	Safe R	False	-32.616127	0.00000	100.00000
257	NJ-05	Safe D	False	12.837882	100.00000	0.00000
258	NJ-06	Safe D	False	25.653794	100.00000	0.00000
259	NJ-07	Lean R	True	-4.924416	25.37792	74.62208
260	NJ-08	Safe D	False	41.361684	100.00000	0.00000
261	NJ-09	Safe D	False	25.305539	100.00000	0.00000
262	NJ-10	Safe D	False	53.074934	100.00000	0.00000
263	NJ-11	Safe D	False	17.448619	100.00000	0.00000
264	NJ-12	Safe D	False	31.103968	100.00000	0.00000
265	NM-01	Safe D	False	13.505631	100.00000	0.00000
266	NM-02	Lean R	False	-1.248806	43.75597	56.24403
267	NM-03	Safe D	False	13.689378	100.00000	0.00000
268	NV-01	Tossup	False	0.379794	51.89897	48.10103
269	NV-02	Safe R	False	-24.950905	0.00000	100.00000
270	NV-03	Tossup	True	-0.340585	48.29707	51.70293
271	NV-04	Lean D	False	3.274181	66.37090	33.62910
272	NY-01	Lean R	False	-4.465779	27.67110	72.32890
273	NY-02	Likely R	False	-7.215304	13.92348	86.07652
274	NY-03	Lean D	False	1.684707	58.42354	41.57646
275	NY-04	Likely D	False	6.884552	84.42276	15.57724
276	NY-05	Safe D	False	52.604658	100.00000	0.00000
277	NY-06	Safe D	False	32.774774	100.00000	0.00000
278	NY-07	Safe D	False	53.121964	100.00000	0.00000
279	NY-08	Safe D	False	47.157262	100.00000	0.00000
280	NY-09	Safe D	False	46.018876	100.00000	0.00000
281	NY-10	Safe D	False	56.761640	100.00000	0.00000
282	NY-11	Safe R	False	-9.584325	2.07838	97.92162
283	NY-12	Safe D	False	54.663067	100.00000	0.00000
284	NY-13	Safe D	False	100.000000	100.00000	0.00000
285	NY-14	Safe D	False	47.113798	100.00000	0.00000
286	NY-15	Safe D	False	58.396189	100.00000	0.00000
287	NY-16	Safe D	False	37.883221	100.00000	0.00000
288	NY-17	Likely D	False	5.772226	78.86113	21.13887
289	NY-18	Lean D	False	4.362030	71.81015	28.18985
290	NY-19	Tossup	True	-0.249051	48.75475	51.24525
291	NY-20	Safe D	False	20.075247	100.00000	0.00000
292	NY-21	Safe R	False	-24.333017	0.00000	100.00000
293	NY-22	Lean R	False	-1.069626	44.65187	55.34813
294	NY-23	Safe R	False	-25.661530	0.00000	100.00000
295	NY-24	Safe R	False	-27.621158	0.00000	100.00000
296	NY-25	Safe D	False	11.713598	100.00000	0.00000
297	NY-26	Safe D	False	28.495372	100.00000	0.00000
298	OH-01	Lean R	False	-1.784249	41.07876	58.92124
299	OH-02	Safe R	False	-46.481865	0.00000	100.00000
300	OH-03	Safe D	False	37.530957	100.00000	0.00000
301	OH-04	Safe R	False	-41.192694	0.00000	100.00000
302	OH-05	Safe R	False	-35.694808	0.00000	100.00000
303	OH-06	Safe R	False	-34.407291	0.00000	100.00000
304	OH-07	Safe R	False	-22.960104	0.00000	100.00000
305	OH-08	Safe R	False	-33.110968	0.00000	100.00000
306	OH-09	Lean D	False	2.331096	61.65548	38.34452
307	OH-10	Safe R	False	-21.480551	0.00000	100.00000
308	OH-11	Safe D	False	48.137007	100.00000	0.00000
309	OH-12	Safe R	False	-36.981582	0.00000	100.00000
310	OH-13	Lean R	True	-1.966848	40.16576	59.83424
311	OH-14	Safe R	False	-27.011406	0.00000	100.00000
312	OH-15	Safe R	False	-22.266589	0.00000	100.00000
313	OK-01	Safe R	False	-29.610883	0.00000	100.00000
314	OK-02	Safe R	False	-47.488662	0.00000	100.00000
315	OK-03	Safe R	False	-43.238114	0.00000	100.00000
316	OK-04	Safe R	False	-35.225476	0.00000	100.00000
317	OK-05	Safe R	False	-26.284184	0.00000	100.00000
318	OR-01	Safe D	False	34.945944	100.00000	0.00000
319	OR-02	Safe R	False	-33.484034	0.00000	100.00000
320	OR-03	Safe D	False	40.850900	100.00000	0.00000
321	OR-04	Lean D	False	4.308595	71.54297	28.45703
322	OR-05	Lean R	True	-3.292250	33.53875	66.46125
323	OR-06	Tossup	True	-0.554020	47.22990	52.77010
324	PA-01	Safe R	False	-13.819883	0.00000	100.00000
325	PA-02	Safe D	False	41.380759	100.00000	0.00000
326	PA-03	Safe D	False	65.895773	100.00000	0.00000
327	PA-04	Safe D	False	21.582337	100.00000	0.00000
328	PA-05	Safe D	False	30.043567	100.00000	0.00000
329	PA-06	Safe D	False	14.264244	100.00000	0.00000
330	PA-07	Lean R	True	-2.001569	39.99215	60.00785
331	PA-08	Lean D	False	1.583715	57.91857	42.08143
332	PA-09	Safe R	False	-38.656826	0.00000	100.00000
333	PA-10	Safe R	False	-16.130593	0.00000	100.00000
334	PA-11	Safe R	False	-29.457166	0.00000	100.00000
335	PA-12	Safe D	False	10.002060	100.00000	0.00000
336	PA-13	Safe R	False	-100.000000	0.00000	100.00000
337	PA-14	Safe R	False	-100.000000	0.00000	100.00000
338	PA-15	Safe R	False	-100.000000	0.00000	100.00000
339	PA-16	Safe R	False	-25.386175	0.00000	100.00000
340	PA-17	Lean R	True	-1.427223	42.86389	57.13611
341	RI-01	Safe D	False	29.835864	100.00000	0.00000
342	RI-02	Lean R	True	-2.214194	38.92903	61.07097
343	SC-01	Safe R	False	-22.168703	0.00000	100.00000
344	SC-02	Safe R	False	-25.219344	0.00000	100.00000
345	SC-03	Safe R	False	-100.000000	0.00000	100.00000
346	SC-04	Safe R	False	-31.254279	0.00000	100.00000
347	SC-05	Safe R	False	-30.184309	0.00000	100.00000
348	SC-06	Safe D	False	30.531451	100.00000	0.00000
349	SC-07	Safe R	False	-29.863072	0.00000	100.00000
350	SD-AL	Safe R	False	-36.980443	0.00000	100.00000
351	TN-01	Safe R	False	-52.674679	0.00000	100.00000
352	TN-02	Safe R	False	-38.103243	0.00000	100.00000
353	TN-03	Safe R	False	-37.965686	0.00000	100.00000
354	TN-04	Safe R	False	-41.023117	0.00000	100.00000
355	TN-05	Safe R	True	-14.986089	0.00000	100.00000
356	TN-06	Safe R	False	-36.928972	0.00000	100.00000
357	TN-07	Safe R	False	-25.670500	0.00000	100.00000
358	TN-08	Safe R	False	-42.446753	0.00000	100.00000
359	TN-09	Safe D	False	41.640418	100.00000	0.00000
360	TX-01	Safe R	False	-46.516542	0.00000	100.00000
361	TX-02	Safe R	False	-35.044062	0.00000	100.00000
362	TX-03	Safe R	False	-25.520056	0.00000	100.00000
363	TX-04	Safe R	False	-36.194213	0.00000	100.00000
364	TX-05	Safe R	False	-32.807027	0.00000	100.00000
365	TX-06	Safe R	False	-100.000000	0.00000	100.00000
366	TX-07	Safe D	False	26.476828	100.00000	0.00000
367	TX-08	Safe R	False	-36.563087	0.00000	100.00000
368	TX-09	Safe D	False	45.292992	100.00000	0.00000
369	TX-10	Safe R	False	-31.059527	0.00000	100.00000
370	TX-11	Safe R	False	-100.000000	0.00000	100.00000
371	TX-12	Safe R	False	-31.041200	0.00000	100.00000
372	TX-13	Safe R	False	-48.567064	0.00000	100.00000
373	TX-14	Safe R	False	-35.778591	0.00000	100.00000
374	TX-15	Likely R	True	-7.832315	10.83843	89.16157
375	TX-16	Safe D	False	29.925644	100.00000	0.00000
376	TX-17	Safe R	False	-32.955476	0.00000	100.00000
377	TX-18	Safe D	False	40.507987	100.00000	0.00000
378	TX-19	Safe R	False	-100.000000	0.00000	100.00000
379	TX-20	Safe D	False	30.296199	100.00000	0.00000
380	TX-21	Safe R	False	-31.429294	0.00000	100.00000
381	TX-22	Safe R	False	-30.164420	0.00000	100.00000
382	TX-23	Safe R	False	-23.599906	0.00000	100.00000
383	TX-24	Safe R	False	-27.922695	0.00000	100.00000
384	TX-25	Safe R	False	-100.000000	0.00000	100.00000
385	TX-26	Safe R	False	-32.135823	0.00000	100.00000
386	TX-27	Safe R	False	-32.556071	0.00000	100.00000
387	TX-28	Lean D	False	4.263739	71.31869	28.68131
388	TX-29	Safe D	False	35.853031	100.00000	0.00000
389	TX-30	Safe D	False	46.375157	100.00000	0.00000
390	TX-31	Safe R	False	-100.000000	0.00000	100.00000
391	TX-32	Safe D	False	25.250176	100.00000	0.00000
392	TX-33	Safe D	False	41.247994	100.00000	0.00000
393	TX-34	Lean D	True	2.645661	63.22831	36.77169
394	TX-35	Safe D	True	37.783817	100.00000	0.00000
395	TX-36	Safe R	False	-38.935256	0.00000	100.00000
396	TX-37	Safe D	False	41.779474	100.00000	0.00000
397	TX-38	Safe R	True	-31.131656	0.00000	100.00000
398	UT-01	Safe R	False	-33.325136	0.00000	100.00000
399	UT-02	Safe R	False	-28.782490	0.00000	100.00000
400	UT-03	Safe R	False	-33.740003	0.00000	100.00000
401	UT-04	Safe R	False	-33.041292	0.00000	100.00000
402	VA-01	Safe R	False	-24.081816	0.00000	100.00000
403	VA-02	Tossup	False	0.188130	50.94065	49.05935
404	VA-03	Safe D	False	35.487294	100.00000	0.00000
405	VA-04	Safe D	False	32.092796	100.00000	0.00000
406	VA-05	Safe R	False	-17.857790	0.00000	100.00000
407	VA-06	Safe R	False	-31.336084	0.00000	100.00000
408	VA-07	Lean D	False	3.797071	68.98536	31.01464
409	VA-08	Safe D	False	44.504072	100.00000	0.00000
410	VA-09	Safe R	False	-42.273678	0.00000	100.00000
411	VA-10	Safe D	False	9.395452	96.97726	3.02274
412	VA-11	Safe D	False	35.741711	100.00000	0.00000
413	VT-AL	Safe D	False	30.137726	100.00000	0.00000
414	WA-01	Safe D	False	27.864187	100.00000	0.00000
415	WA-02	Safe D	False	24.069639	100.00000	0.00000
416	WA-03	Likely R	False	-6.910711	15.44645	84.55355
417	WA-04	Safe R	False	-29.734444	0.00000	100.00000
418	WA-05	Safe R	False	-25.932058	0.00000	100.00000
419	WA-06	Safe D	False	18.667493	100.00000	0.00000
420	WA-07	Safe D	False	57.828813	100.00000	0.00000
421	WA-08	Lean D	False	1.802501	59.01251	40.98749
422	WA-09	Safe D	False	38.870451	100.00000	0.00000
423	WA-10	Safe D	False	20.845558	100.00000	0.00000
424	WI-01	Safe R	False	-17.692173	0.00000	100.00000
425	WI-02	Safe D	False	36.263097	100.00000	0.00000
426	WI-03	Safe R	False	-9.608351	1.95824	98.04176
427	WI-04	Safe D	False	44.803083	100.00000	0.00000
428	WI-05	Safe R	False	-33.026901	0.00000	100.00000
429	WI-06	Safe R	False	-100.000000	0.00000	100.00000
430	WI-07	Safe R	False	-28.957549	0.00000	100.00000
431	WI-08	Safe R	False	-28.801767	0.00000	100.00000
432	WV-01	Safe R	False	-41.907955	0.00000	100.00000
433	WV-02	Safe R	False	-38.616171	0.00000	100.00000
434	WY-AL	Safe R	False	-43.473548	0.00000	100.00000

Safe Republican - A <=95% chance of voting Republican

Likely Republican - A <=75% chance of voting Republican

Leans Republican - A <=55% chance of voting Republican

Tossup - A >=55% chance of voting for either party

Leans Democratic - A <=55% chance of voting Democratic

Likely Democratic - A <=75% chance of voting Democratic

Safe Democratic - A <=95% chance of voting Democratic

This model is made up of two components, two which everyone that's a politics junkie knows well - the fundamentals and the polls.

The model fundamentals are made up of three components in of themselves - a presidential composite using

• 5% 2012 presidential election results
• 15% 2016 presidential election results
• and 80% 2020 presidential election results.

On top of that, the presidential composite is adjusted for district trends over the last 2 years, which altogether makes a partisan lean index. But there are 3 states where there's been top-two primary results from 2022 that can suitably replace a partisan lean index - Alaska, California, and Washington, so AK/CA/WA adjusted (for primary-general swing) primary results MOSTLY replace the partisan lean index for congressional districts in those states. However, a partisan lean index is on its own not a good way to forecast elections, so that's why I've also used;

• a fundraising index using the dollar spending difference between the Democratic and Republican candidates. SPECIAL THANKS TO ROB PYERS!
• a candidate index (using 2020 results for current incumbents and candidate experience (i.e. whether a candidate is a mayor, state representative, etc) for non-incumbents)
• district-by-district ratings from the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter , Inside Elections from Nathan Gonzales , Sabato's Crystal Ball from the UVA CFP , and Split Ticket .
• and a demographic index based off AP votecast (although demographics has very little weight.)

As for the polls, it's a little more simple; polling data simply uses a weighted average of every poll based off of recency. Recency weight is also adjusted for situations where there's less than 10 polls. If there are no polls, polling data is assumed based off of Senate polls (70% of the weight) and Governor polls (30% of the weight.) Poll margins are also edited based off if they're a Democratic or Republican internal polls, since internal polls are usually 5 points more biased toward the surveying party.
After the fundamentals and poll margins are calculated, they're weighted together using the amount of polls that have been produced, which produces an exact margin. Once an exact margin is created, a randomizer of +2 to -2 points is ran 250,000 times, and the median margin is used as the neutral year forecast margin. The neutral year forecast margin is then added to the state level environment (which is calculated from the national environment), which produces the official acctuallydavid.com forecast margin for the district.