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2023 Models
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Updated at 06:35 PM, September 01, 2023 (US Eastern Time)
78.4%
21.6%
Rating Categories
Rating
Probability %
GOP Colo(u)r
Dem Colo(u)r
Indy Colo(u)r
Safe
95.0% or more
Likely
95.0% to 75.0%
Lean
75.0% to 55.0%
Tossup
55.0% or less
2023 MODELS
SOURCES AND THANKS
Polling data: 538
Various: Wikipedia
Religion data: Daily Kos Elections
Religion data: US Religion Census
Urbanization data: Department of H.U.D.
Election data: OurCampaigns
Election data: JHKForecasts
Race ratings: 270towin (Sabato, Split Ticket, Inside Elections, Cook)
Election data+Workshopping: @OregonMapGuy
Workshopping: @averyhatestwt
Workshopping: @ET_Californian
Methodology
Download statewide data
Download county data